An optimal mix of solar PV,wind and hydro power for a low-carbon electricity supply in Brazil |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Programa de Planejamento Energético, COPPE, Universidade Federal de Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;2. Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria;1. Department of Chemical Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, 43, Keelung Rd., Sec. 4, Taipei 106-07, Taiwan;2. Department of Chemical Engineering, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Kampus ITS Keputih Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111, Indonesia;3. Department of Chemical Engineering, Widya Mandala Surabaya Catholic University, Kalijudan 37, Surabaya 60114, Indonesia;4. Department of Chemical Engineering, University of San Carlos – Talamban Campus, Nasipit, Talamban, Cebu City 6000, Philippines;1. Andalusian Institute for Earth System Research, Universidad de Granada, Av. del Mediterráneo s/n., 18006 Granada, Spain;2. Universidad de Málaga, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería Industrial, Campus de Teatinos, 29071 Málaga, Spain;1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Recep Tayyip Erdoğam University, 52349 Rize, Turkey;2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Yildiz Technical University, 34349 Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey;3. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Istanbul Aydın University, 34455 Florya, Istanbul, Turkey;1. Department of Architecture, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan;2. Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan |
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| Abstract: | Brazil has to expand its power generation capacities due to significant projected growth of demand. The government aims at adding hydropower capacities in North–Brazil, additional to wind and thermal power generation. However, new hydropower may affect environmentally and socially sensitive areas in the Amazon region negatively while thermal power generation produces greenhouse gas emissions. We therefore assess how future greenhouse gas emissions from electricity production in Brazil can be minimized by optimizing the daily dispatch of photovoltaic (PV), wind, thermal, and hydropower plants. Using a simulation model, we additionally assess the risk of loss of load. Results indicate that at doubled demand in comparison to 2013, only 2% of power production has to be provided by thermal power. Existing reservoirs of hydropower are sufficient to balance variations in renewable electricity supply at an optimal mix of around 37% of PV, 9% of wind, and 50% of hydropower generation. In a hydro-thermal only scenario, the risk of deficit increases tenfold, and thermal power production four-fold. A sensitivity analysis shows that the choice of meteorological data sets used for simulating renewable production affects the choice of locations for PV and wind power plants, but does not significantly change the mix of technologies. |
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| Keywords: | Brazil Greenhouse gas emissions Photovoltaic Wind Optimization |
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