基于状态和风险评估的老旧变压器安全经济性管理分析

笔者主要对广西电网运行15年及以上变压器进行了安全经济性分析,提出了变压器状态评价、风险评估及经济性分析辅助决策的算法和模型。通过运用变压器状态评价和风险评估技术,分别从安全性和经济性的角度对变压器大修、改造或更换所能产生的效果进行综合分析,模拟技改评估结果,提供变压器未来最佳更换时期,实现对老旧变压器的最优化管理。

Safety and Economics Analysis of the Aged Transformer Based on the Condition Evaluation and Risk Assessment

This paper mainly analyses the safety and economy of the aged transformer operating 15 years and over.The algorithm and model of transformer condition evaluation,risk assessment and economy analysis assistant decision are proposed.An optimized management of these aged transformers can be achieved by evaluating the condition and risk of them,comprehensively analyzing the effects of maintenance,refurbishment and replacement of them in the view of both safety and econmics,simulating the evaluation result of technical improvement and providing the best replacing time.