技术创新扩散的元胞自动机仿真

首先通过对Bass模型进行参数估计,建立了基于元胞自动机的技术创新扩散模型,然后基于仿真软件Agentsheets设计和实现了仿真,最后以中国互联网络技术扩散为对象进行了实证研究,并将CA模型、Bass模型和实际数据进行了对比分析,对未来的网民数扩散的趋势进行了预测。该元胞自动机模型将网民数扩散的过程直观展示出来,仿真结果符合实际情况。

Modeling Diffusion of Innovations with Cellular Automata

In this paper, we present a probabilistic CA model for the Internet Diffusion and bring forward its simulation implementation. The parameters of CA model are derived from aggregate-level data so that the model can be use for trends prediction. In empirical study of the Internet Diffusion, we compare the result of the CA model, Bass model and the actual data. By the interacting of individual level unit, this model can reveal the pattern of Internet Diffusion, and the result of the simulation suggests that the forecasting precision of the CA model is nearly equal to the actual data.