| 电力月负荷的混沌趋势组合模型预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李眉眉,丁晶,衡彤,覃光华.电力月负荷的混沌趋势组合模型预测[J].四川电力技术,2006,29(3):1-3. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李眉眉 丁晶 衡彤 覃光华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川大学化工学院,四川成都,610065
2. 四川大学水电学院,四川成都,610065 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目资助(项目编号:40271024) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对电力月负荷同时具有趋势增长性和季节波动性,使负荷表现出复杂的非线性特征,从而提出了电力月负荷的混沌趋势组合模型。以四川省全省月负荷序列为例,把原始电力月负荷序列分解为趋势序列和剩余序列。通过计算剩余序列的混沌特征量,识别出剩余序列的混沌特性。在此基础上,利用混沌趋势组合模型对月负荷时间序列进行预测,实例结果表明,该方法对电力月负荷的预测是可行的。
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| 关 键 词： | 月负荷时间序列 混沌理论 趋势分析 组合预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-6954(2006)03-0001-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年4月24日 |
Combined Model with Chaos and Trend Analysis for Monthly Load Forecast |
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| Li Meimei,Ding Jing,Heng Tong,Tan Guanghua.Combined Model with Chaos and Trend Analysis for Monthly Load Forecast[J].Sichuan Electric Power Technology,2006,29(3):1-3. |
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| Authors: | Li Meimei Ding Jing Heng Tong Tan Guanghua |
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| Affiliation: | Li Meimei Ding Jing Heng Tong Tan Guanghua |
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| Abstract: | Monthly load is possessed of the property of increase trend and seasonal fluctuation simultaneously,so its behavior appears as the characteristic of complex non-linearity.A combined model based on chaos and trend analysis for monthly load forecast is presented.Decomposing the original monthly load time series of Sichuan province into a part of trend and a part of surplus and based on chaos theory,chaotic characteristic of the surplus series is extracted,and it is concluded that surplus series is a chaotic one.Then combined model is used to forecast monthly load,and the predicted result indicates that the combined model is effective for monthly load forecast. |
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| Keywords: | monthly load time series chaos theory trend analysis combined forecasting model |
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