广东省暴雨高风险区划EI北大核心CSCD

运用水文气象地区线性矩频率分析法,选取广东省及周围缓冲区雨量站1 h、6 h、12 h和24 h年最大降水量资料,计算站点降雨频率估计值,分析暴雨高风险区划。结果表明:根据1 h、6 h、12 h和24 h年最大降水量资料广东省可分别划分为13、15、16和16个水文气象一致区,大部分一致区的最优分布为广义极值分布和广义正态分布;降雨频率估计值的空间分布态势在相同时段不同重现期下基本一致,而不同时段存在一定差异,1 h暴雨高风险区位于西南部沿海阳江附近,6 h、12 h和24 h暴雨高风险区位于阳江、珠江三角洲广州到清远和东部沿海陆丰附近区域。

High-risk rainstorm zonation of Guangdong Province

Using 1 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h annual maximum rainfall data of Guangdong Province and the buffer zone around it, the hydrometeorological regional L-moments frequency analysis method was used to obtain rainfall quantile estimates, and the high-risk rainstorm areas(HRRAs)of Guangdong Province were investigated. The results show that Guangdong Province was delineated into 13, 15, 16, and 16 hydrometeorological homogeneous regions(HMHRs)for 1 h, 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h annual maximum rainfall data, respectively. The best-fit frequency distributions for most HMHRs were generalized extreme-value and generalized normal distributions. The spatial distributions of rainfall quantiles for the same duration were similar at different return periods, while there were certain differences for different durations. HRRA of 1 h data was located near Yangjiang along the southwest coast; HRRAs of 6 h, 12 h, and 24 h data were located around Yangjiang, Guangzhou of Pearl River Delta to Qingyuan, and Lufeng on the east coast.