黄河上游唐乃亥流域径流统计特征分析及气候影响

根据黄河上游唐乃亥以上气候资料, 统计分析了近 50年气候变化特点并以其与唐乃亥站径流关系为依据,分析了气候变化对唐乃亥站径流量的影响.结果表明:黄河上游径流呈现以枯水期占优势的丰、枯水交替变化规律,其完整的丰枯循环周期约在18 a;1920～1998年的年径流量呈现弱增长趋势,2000年以后进入一个丰水段;该区年均径流量为617 m3/s,主要集中在6～10月份;月均径流、降水和气温在变换趋势和影响月份上具有高相关性;在全球变暖的大环境下,研究区气温处于波动上升状态,20世纪90年代以后,降水、径流均呈下降趋势.

Runoff Statistical Analysis and Climate Influence of Tangnaihai Basin in Upstream of the Yellow River

The climate variation characteristics are analyzed according to the climate data of Tangnaihai and its upstream of Yellow River in the last 50 years. In terms of the relationships between climate variation to the natural runoff in Tangnaihai station is analyzed. The results showed that cycles of high and low flows in the upper Yellow River(Tangnaihai basin) alternately occur, but the time of the high flow is less than that of low one on the whole, and the period of an integrated high and low flow cycle is about 18 years. The annual runoff tends to weak increase from 1920 to 1998, and it is expected that the runoff will present a state of high flows after 2000. The annual average runoff is 617m~3/s and mainly concentrated in Jun to Oct. Monthly average runoff, precipitation and atmospheric temperature in changing trend and influence months have high correlation. Under the condition of global warming, the atmospheric temperature tends to fluctuating increase, but the precipitation and runoff tend to fluctuating drop after 1990s.