2020—2035年我国钒需求预测

钒是一种战略金属,主要应用于钢铁领域及高端制造方面,准确预测研判我国未来钒矿产品需求形势,可以为我国矿产资源"十四五"规划以及钒矿供给侧产能规划布局提供参考.本文分析了典型国家钒消费与粗钢生产的内在规律,发现两者存在较明显的正相关关系,同时通过分析我国钒矿产品各消费领域情况,发现各领域消费数据适用A RIM A(差分整...

Forecast of China

Vanadium is a strategic metal, mainly used in the field of steel and high-end manufacturing. Accurately grasping the demand situation of vanadium resources can provide reference for the 14th five-year plan of mineral resources in China and the capacity planning layout of vanadium mine supply side. This paper analyzes the internal laws of vanadium consumption and crude steel production in typical countries, and finds that there is a clear positive correlation between the two. At the same time, by analyzing the consumption of vanadium mineral products in China, it finds that the consumption data of each sector is applicable to ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model) model.By combining the forecast results of the two methods, the following conclusions are drawn: China"s vanadium demand will still grow in the short term, reaching its peak in 2026, when the demand will be 116,200 tons, and the per capita vanadium (V2O5) consumption will be 82g, and then maintained at a high shock of 107,900~109,900 tons. According to the prediction results, the following suggestions are put forward: formulating and implementing the development plan of the demand side of vanadium minerals, making a good layout of the capacity planning of the supply side of vanadium minerals in China, and improving the technological process of vanadium steel.