防洪调度系统半结构性决策理论与方法

文中首先指出防洪调度系统决策是一个既有定量目标，又有定性目标的多目标半结构性决策问题。在二元对比的基础上，提出定性目标相对优属度矩阵的确定理论与方法，继而提出与定性目标相对优属度计算具有统一标准的定量目标相对优属度计算公式，然后综合成防洪调度系统的目标相对优属度矩阵。应用多目标多级模糊优选模型即可求解得到最优或满意防洪调度方案。应用实例表明，该方法充分考虑了各目标对防洪调度决策的影响和利用了人的经验知识，决策是合理可靠的。

Semi-structural decision-making theory and approach for flood control and dispatching system

This paper points out that the decision-making for flood control and dispatching systems is a multi-objective and semi-structural decision-making including qualitative objectives and quantitative objectives.On the basis of pair-wise comparison,a theory and approach for calculating the relative membership degree of quantitative objectives is develped.Furthermore,the formula for calculating the quantitative objectives that has the same calculating standards as the formula of relative membership degree of quantitative objectives is established.The relative membership degree matrix of all objectives can be integrated.Through multi-objective and multi-level fuzzy optimal model,the optimal or satisfactory decision can be obtained.The practical case shows that the approach takes the influence of all objectives and experience and knowledge of decision-makers into account,so it is rational and reliable.