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文章从油气藏形成机理出发，分析了油气藏中孔隙结构和聚集驱动力对原始饱和度形成所起的作用。油气在驱动力的作用下，首先在构造顶部较大的孔隙喉道相连接的大孔隙中聚集，随着油气柱高度的增加（即驱动力的增加），油气才能进一步进入较小的孔隙喉道中，油藏中距自由水界面越高，油气饱和度则越大。据此，建立了油气藏高度和孔隙物性参数与气藏饱和度的关系，进而可对油气藏饱和度进行预测。经实际应用并用毛管压力资料和核磁实验资料获得的饱和度进行对比，饱和度的平均误差在1%以内。该方法还可用于缺少电阻率测井资料或电阻率曲线受井眼和泥浆侵入严重影响而无法使用等情况的饱和度预测中。

Saturation Prediction Method Based on Oil-gas Displacement Theory

Oil and gas reservoir formation process was controlled by oil ,gas and water bearing pore system.Proceeding from the mechanism of forming oil and gas reservoirs,this paper analyzes the effect of the pore structure and accumulation drive forces in reservoir on initial saturation formation.By the action of drive forces,oil and gas were accumulated in the larger pores connected by larger pore throats at the top of the structure,then entered into the smaller pore throats along with the increase in the height of oil/gas column (i.e.the increase in drive force).In reservoir,the higher the position to the free water interface,the greater the oil/gas saturation.According to this,the relationship of the height of oil/gas reservoir and porosity parameter with the reservoir saturation can be set up,then the reservoir saturation may be predicted.Through applying practically and as compared with the saturations determined by capillary pressure data and nuclear magnetic experimental data,the average error of the saturations predicted was less than one percent.This method may be also used for predicting the saturation under the circumstances of lacking the resistivity logging data or of the resistivity log′s being unable to be utilized because of the serious influences of wellbore and mud invasion.