典型国家工业化进程中能源强度的变化及启示

能源强度是用于比较不同国家或地区经济发展对于能源依赖程度的重要指标。通过对典型国家工业化进程中能源强度变化情况进行深入分析,发现能源强度并非简单与第二产业比重、高耗能产品产量直接关联,而是更多地和工业化的内容、主导产业相关。发展用于城市扩张、基础设施建设的传统工业化会导致能源强度快速上升,而发展高附加值、高端制造业的现代化工业又可以抵消传统工业化对能源强度的拉动作用。我国目前处于传统工业化发展迅速而工业现代化发展不足的状态,同时第三产业发展相对缓慢,因此能源强度上升压力较大。实现能源强度持续下降,有赖于工业化模式的根本性转变和结构上的根本性调整。

Analysis of Changes on Historical Energy Intensity Trends among Industrialized Countries and Lessons for China

Energy intensity ("EI" for short) is a key index for comparison on energy efficiency in different countries and regions. Through the systematical analysis on historical EI trends among those industrialized countries, we’ve found that the trend of EI correlated with the contents of industrialization process and leading industries, rather than the proportion of secondary industry (value-added) and the production of energy-intensive products. Traditional industrialization characterized by rapid urbanization process and infrastructure constructions would substantially raise the EI, while developing modern industries characterized by high valueadded, high-tech industries would partly offset this trend. China is witnessing the rapid developing speed of traditional industry and insufficient development of modern industry, while tertiary industry developing relatively slowly. Therefore, all these factors might push the EI to rise quickly.