Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024 U.S.A.
Abstract:
A framework for incorporating uncertainty in risk management is developed and applied to two aspects of decision making: meeting standards or safety goals, and cost-benefit criteria. The framework is applied to several case studies including toxic chemicals in water, failure of civil engineering structures and nuclear power plants. The framework proposes that decisions be based on a level of confidence, in addition to comparing best estimate or point values with standards and goals.