基于概率分析的锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构寿命预测

钢筋锈蚀是导致混凝土结构破坏的主要原因，合理预测锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的使用寿命对减少工程的经济损失、保证结构的安全运行具有重要意义。针对锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构在不同寿命评估准则下的使用寿命预测问题，基于混凝土结构耐久性现状检测结果，采用概率分析可靠度方法，通过抗力和荷载效应的统计特征求得结构的时变可靠指标，从而对结构的裂缝宽度寿命和承载力寿命进行分析预测。以拱坝孔口和水电站厂房吊车梁为例进行计算，研究结果表明：结构的动态可靠指标随着服役时间的增加呈下降趋势，概率分析法的寿命预测结果在合理的预测区间内。研究成果可在实际工程中为钢筋混凝土结构的维修和加固提供决策依据。

Service life prediction of corroded reinforced concrete structures based on probability analysis

Reinforcement corrosion is the main cause of the concrete structure failures. The service life prediction of the corroded reinforced concrete structures is of great significance to the reduction of economic loss of the project and safe operation of the structure. Aiming at the problem of service life prediction under different life assessment criteria, the time varying reliability index of the structure is obtained through the statistical characteristics of resistance and load effect using probability analysis reliability method, based on the test results of structural durability status. According to the index, the crack width life and bearing capacity life of the structure can be analyzed and predicted. The case study of an arch dam orifice and the crane girder of a hydropower house was carried out for the analysis. The results show that the dynamic reliability index of the structure decreases with the increase of service time, and the life prediction result of probability analysis method is within a reasonable prediction range. The study can provide decision making support for the maintenance and reinforcement of reinforced concrete structures in practical projects.