施工导流风险损失估量模型研究

施工导流作为水电工程的重要组成部分,其风险损失不仅是工程决策的依据,还是工程保险费率厘定的重要因素。在施工导流运行期,上游超标洪水导致围堰漫顶甚至基坑淹没,不仅导致经济损失,而且延误工期。为准确计算施工导流损失,根据工程施工进度和泄水条件将其分为施工导流系统损失、基坑系统损失和工期损失,并对各部分损失进行定义和量化计算,建立施工导流运行期损失模型。实例计算表明,该模型可为施工导流标准的选择和保险费率的厘定提供参考。

Risk Loss Estimation Model of Construction Diversion

As construction diversion is an important part of hydropower project, risk loss is not only the basis for selecting construction diversion schemes, but also is an important factor for affecting engineering insurance rate. In the operation period of construction diversion, the excessive flooding in the upper reaches leads to the cofferdam and even submerged foundation pit, which causes the economic loss and delays the construction period. In order to calculate the loss of construction diversion accurately, the loss of construction diversion is divided into three types: the loss of construction diversion system, the loss of foundation pit system, and the loss of construction period according to the engineering construction progress and drainage condition. Then each part of loss are defined and quantified. Finally, the loss model of construction diversion operation period is established. The case study shows that the model can provide reference for the selection of construction diversion standard and the determination of insurance rate.