基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS对木香花 在中国的潜在地理分布预测与生境分析

采用143个木香花(Rosa banksiae Ait.)自然分布 点数据和19个气候变量数据，运用基于ArcGIS地理信息系统平 台的最大熵MaxEnt(Maximum Entropy Model)生态位模 型，对木香花在中国的适生区域进行模拟预测，并探讨影响木 香花分布的主导气候因子。结果表明：1)基于气候变量与木香 花自然分布点的MaxEnt模型预测精度很高，可信度好，AUC 值为0.909，大于0.9；2)最冷月最低温、年降雨量、最冷季 降雨量是限制木香花分布的主要气候变量；3)当前中国木香花 潜在地理分布高适生区面积为74.87万km2 、中适生区面积为 91.05万km2 、低适生区面积113.51万km2 ，总适生区面积为 279.43万km2 ，其中核心分布区主要集在中国亚热带包括云 南、贵州、四川、重庆、湖北、江苏、陕西、安徽8省。以期对 木香花进行仿自然群落、数字景观、定量化植物造景设计，科 学调控其主导环境因子进行栽培、管理、养护，确保成活率， 为园林绿地建设提供理论依据。

Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution and Habitat Analysis of Rosa banksiae in China Based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS

: In this study, 143 Rosa banksiae Ait. natural distribution points and 19 climate variable data were used, and the Maximum Entropy Model niche model based on ArcGIS GIS platform was adopted. In this paper, we simulated and predicted the suitable areas of Rosa banksiae Ait. in China, and discussed the dominant climate factors affecting the distribution of Rosa banksiae Ait.. The results showed as follows: 1) The MaxEnt model based on climate variables and natural distribution points of Rosa banksiae Ait. had high prediction accuracy and reliability, and the AUC value was 0.909 > 0.9; 2) The coldest temperature in the coldest month, the annual rainfall and the coldest season rainfall were the main climatic variables limiting the distribution of Rosa banksiae Ait.; 3) At present, the potential geographical distribution of Rosa banksiae Ait. covers 748,700km2 with high suitability, 910,500km2 with medium suitability, 1,135,100km2 with low suitability, and 2,794,300km2 with total suitability. The core distribution area is mainly concentrated in subtropical China, including Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Anhui and other 8 provinces. Through this study, It is expected to carry out the imitation of natural community, digital landscape and quantitative plant landscape design of Rosa banksiae Ait., Scientific control of its leading environmental factors for cultivation, management and maintenance, so as to ensure the survival rate and provide a theoretical basis for the construction of garden green space.