北京市城镇化与水资源系统的动态耦合分析

北京市城镇化进程在改善水资源利用效率的同时,也带来了水资源耗用量的增加和水污染程度的加剧。在合理构建城镇化与水资源系统指标体系的基础上,通过构建动态耦合模型,来对北京市城镇化系统与水资源系统的协调发展态势进行分析研究。分析结果表明:2005~2014年间,北京市城镇化系统与水资源系统的发展演化并不同步;城镇化系统发展呈现单边上升的趋势,而水资源系统的发展却具有波动性。两系统的动态耦合发展态势经历了协调发展、极限发展、再次协调发展共3个阶段,相互影响程度经历了由小变大再变小的过程,大致呈现出"倒U型"变化。根据研究结果,提出了北京市应放缓城镇化步伐,注重城镇化质量,以及发展高新技术以减少水资源污染等合理化的建议。

Dynamic coupling analysis of urbanization and water resources system in Beijing

In the urbanization process of Beijing, the water resources utilization efficiency has been improved, but the water consumption increased and water pollution was worse. On the basis of building an assessment index system for the urbanization and water resources and a dynamic coupling model, the coordinated development situation between the urbanization system and the water resources system in Beijing is analyzed. The results show that the development and evolution of urbanization system and water resources system in Beijing were not synchronous between 2005 and 2014; the urbanization system showed a unilateral upward trend while the development of the water resources system showed a waved trend; the dynamic coupling development trend of the 2 systems had experienced three stages, i.e, the coordinated development, the extreme development and the coordinated development, and the degree of mutual influence experienced a process of small-big-small, in the type of "inverted U". According to the study results, some suggestions are put forward, namely slowing down the urbanization process, paying attention to the urbanization quality, developing high and new technology, reducing water pollution.