社会发展对电能消费的定量分析

20世纪80年代以来社会用电量快速增长，为了研究其对电力需求的特点，分别分析了构成社会系统用电量的城镇公共设施用电量和居民生活用电量与主要影响因素的关系，建立了两者用电量与主要影响因素的回归分析模型。研究结果表明：1987年以来城镇公共设施用电量与城市化率紧密相关，根据此模型结合我国全面建设小康社会的目标，对2010年和2020年城镇公共设施需电量进行了预测。1985年以来影响居民人均生活用电量的2个主要因素是电价和居民人均可支配收入。与国外对比，定量分析了我国居民人均生活用电的电价弹性和收入弹性。分析结果表明，我国居民人均生活用电量对电价和收入弹性的绝对值都大于1，即皆富有弹性。

Quantitative analysis of electricity consumption influenced by social progress

In order to study the characteristics of the electricity demand in view of the rapid increase of electricity consumption since 1980's, two econometrics models were established for a quantitative analysis of the factors for electricity consumption in urban public utility and in the residential sector in China. The analysis demonstrates that there is a positive correlation between the electricity consumption in urban public utility and the urbanization rate after 1987. Considering the goal of building a well-off society set up by the government, it is forecasted herein within the model about the electricity demand of urban public utility between 2010 and 2020. In the residential sector, the per capita electricity consumption is mainly affected by electricity price and their per capita income since 1985. Contrasted with the researches of other countries, the investigation also analyzed the electricity price and the per capital income elasticity of the per capita electricity consumption in the residential sector. The results indicate that the absolute values of the electricity price and the per capital income elasticity are more than 1, i.e. fully elastic.