考虑电动汽车停泊概率的配电网接纳电动汽车能力评估方法

针对规模化电动汽车无序充电易导致配电网电压及潮流越限，需要定量评估配电网接纳电动汽车的能力问题，提出考虑电动汽车停泊概率的配电网接纳能力评估方法。首先在充电负荷建模环节增加考虑电动汽车停泊概率的影响，采用二阶段方法确定充电负荷所在节点；其次对基础负荷的季节特性进行建模，以研究由此导致的配电网接纳能力季节差异；建立了考虑静态安全约束的接纳能力评估模型，采用机会约束消除充电负荷预测偏差对评估准确度的影响。最后通过算例验证了所提评估方法的有效性。

Evaluation Method of Electric Vehicle Hosting Capacity in Distribution Network Considering Electric Vehicle Parking Probability

The disorder charging of large-scale electric vehicles can cause voltage or power flow off-limit. It is necessary to quantitatively evaluate the capability of the distribution network integrating the electric vehicles. Therefore the paper proposes an evaluation method of electric vehicle hosting capacity in distribution network considering electric vehicle parking probability. Firstly， the influence of the electric vehicle parking probability is taken into account during the modeling of charging load，and two-stage method is used to determine the node where the charging load is located. Then the model for the seasonal characteristics of base load is built to study the seasonal differences in the integration capability of the network. Meanwhile， an evaluation model of the integration capability considering the static security constraints is established， and the opportunity constraint is used to eliminate the influence of the charging load forecast deviation on the evaluation accuracy. Finally， the effectiveness of the evaluation method is verified with the example.