基于组合预测模型的产业总产值的预测研究

对于预测复杂的经济数据来说，选取合适的预测模型将是提高预测精度的关键。本文采用灰色模型与回归模型的组合预测模型对贵州省高技术产业总产值进行预测，利用了组合模型可以改善线性回归模型中没有考虑指数增长以及灰色模型中没有考虑线性因素的不足，从而达到提高预测精度的目的。并进行了计算机数值仿真实验表明了组合预测模型的有效性。

Industrial Output Prediction Research Based on Combination Forecasting Model

For predicting complex economic data, selecting suitable prediction model is the key to improve the prediction accuracy.This paper uses the combination of grey model and regression model to predict the high technology industry output in Guizhou.Taking the advantages of this combination model can improve the linear regression model by considering the exponential growthand improve the grey model by considering the linear factor, so as to achieve the goal of improving the prediction accuracy. And thecomputer numerical simulation results show the effectiveness of the combination forecasting model.