新疆博斯腾湖1997~2010年水质及硝态氮变化研究

评价水环境质量对严格控制水体污染、实现流域水资源的可持续利用具有重要意义。根据新疆博斯腾湖1997～2010年主要水环境质量指标数据，采用改进灰色关联分析法与趋势分析法分析了水质与硝态氮变化情况。结果表明，1997~2010年期间，博斯腾湖水环境质量呈现波动变化趋势，大多数年份为Ⅱ类水质，个别年份为Ⅲ类水质；水体质量关联度值总体呈现递减趋势，递减率为0.009 4/a，回归方程相关系数为0.666，通过了置信度为0.01的极显著检验，表明水质有逐渐恶化的趋势；水体中硝态氮浓度总体呈现递减趋势，递减率为0.021 1 mg/(L·a)，回归方程相关系数为0.569，通过了置信度为0.05的显著性检验。研究结果为博斯腾湖流域水环境保护及水资源开发利用提供了重要参考。

Study on Water Quality and Nitrate Nitrogen Change of Bosten Lake during 1997-2010

It is of great significance to carry out water environmental quality assessment for the strict control of water pollution and water resources sustainable utilization. According to the main water environmental index data in Bosten Lake from 1997 to 2010, the improved gray correlation analysis and trend analysis are used to analyze water quality and nitrate nitrogen change. The results show that during 1997 to 2010, the water quality is fluctuant, it belongs to class II for most years and class III for individual year; overall, water quality correlation value is decreasing trend, and the decreasing rate is 0.009 4/a; the correlation coefficient is 0.666, and the confidence level is very significant to test 0.01; nitrate nitrogen concentration of water body decreases gradually in the overall trend, and the decreasing rate is 0.021 1mg/(L·a); the correlation coefficient is 0.569, and the confidence level passes 0.05 significance test. The research results provide an important reference for water environment protection and water resources utilization in Bosten Lake.