上游水库调蓄对桂林水文站洪水预报的影响分析

随着上游川江、小溶江及斧子口水库的陆续建成,桂林水文站上游流域产、汇流条件已改变,原有的预报方案已不能满足洪水预报作业要求。为此,结合"2013.05"洪水,采用单位线法推求天然洪水过程,分析了上游水库调蓄对桂林水文站洪水预报的影响,探讨该流域洪水产汇流特性,以期优化桂林水文站洪水预报方案,提高洪水预报精度。

Influence of upstream reservoir storage and regulation on flood forecasting of Guilin Hydrological Station

With the three reservoirs of Chuangjiang, Xiaorongjiang and Fuzikou being constructed gradually, the up?stream runoff and confluence conditions of Guilin Hydrological Station had changed, so the original prediction scheme can not satisfy the requirements for flood forecasting. Combined with the flood occurred in May of 2013, unit hydrograph method is adopted to calculate natural flood, based on which the author analyzed the influence of upstream reservoir storage and regulation on flood forecasting of Guilin Hydrological Station, discussed the flood runoff and confluence characteristics of this river basin, aiming to optimize the flood prediction scheme and improve forecasting accuracy.