发电侧市场竞争策略的风险分析及决策模型

在发电侧电力市场中 ,电价由市场的供求关系决定 ,发电厂商实行竞价上网。他们根据自己盈利的期望报价 ,既要保证上网运行成为可能 ,又要保证收入及利润最大 ,因此报价高低都存在着影响收益与否和收益大小的风险 ,如何在竞争中获胜 ,就要求发电厂商进行一定的风险分析 ,作出合理的决策。通过对发电厂商进行的经济风险辨识和分析 ,提出了基于期望损益值准则的风险性决策模型 ,同时通过实际算例予以证明。

The risk analysis and decision model of competition strategy for pool purchase price

In the electricity market, the relation between the supply and demand decides the price of the electricity. The competitive market exposes the power producers to new uncertainties. The power plants want to quote the high price to earn the high profit, but sometimes they lose the chance of acceding the net and should face the high risk. The risk affects the producers to get the profit or not and the amount of the profit. The producers should do some analysis of the risk before they quote in order to succeed in the competition. The algorithm this paper provided can be used to analyze the risk and found the decision model of competition strategy for pool purchase price.