采用支持向量机图形用户界面的电力负荷组合预测方法

运用多种预测方法对中长期电力负荷预测所得结果会相差甚远，而综合各方法的组合预测能够避免其偏颇。由于在小样本和非线性拟合能力方面的优势，支持向量机方法被用于组合预测：多种传统方法预测值作为输入，拟合输入与输出之间的非线性关系，求得预测结果。针对SVM在处理回归问题时算法编程及参数寻优较为复杂的问题，提出了一种基于SVM图形用户界面（Graphical User Interface，GUI）工具箱的组合预测方法。算例分析表明，运用该方法，在预测过程中可直观、方便地应用通用软件工具包，且预测精度较高，便于推广和工程应用。

Combined Power Load Forecasting Method Using Support Vector Machine Graphical User Interface

The long-term power load forecasting results obtailled by a variety of forecasting methods are a far cry. The combined forecasting approach synthesizes various methods to avoid bias. Due to the advantages of the small sample and non-linear fitting ability, support vector machine （SVM） method is used for combining forecasts. The predictive values of a variety of methods are employed as input to fit non-linear relationship between input and out- put and obtain the predicted results. To reduce the complexity of algorithm programming and parameter optimization by using SVM for regression problem, a combination forecasting method based on SVM graphical user interface tool- kit is proposed. The example shows that the application of general-purpose software toolkit in the forecasting process is intuitive and convenient, predicted result is accuracy, and the proposed method is convenient for engineering ap- plications.