西宁市耕地变化及城市发展适度性探究

耕地总量变化能够在一定程度上反映区域社会经济、人工活动、城市变迁的发展规律，对研究城镇化发展进程具有重要意义。基于西宁市2009—2016年土地利用现状变更调查数据，通过提取全市旱地和水浇地空间矢量数据，采用Arcgis软件叠加分析、空间分析等数据处理功能，分析测算了西宁市耕地变化动态度、耕地变化率、耕地重心偏移度的变化规律和结果，得到了西宁市三县四区近年来耕地总量变化和空间分布的实际情况，揭示了西宁市城市发展与耕地变化的内在联系。通过利用SAS、SPSS、EXCEL的统计分析功能对西宁市未来耕地总量的变化情况进行了预测，探讨了耕地总量变化对西宁市未来发展适度性的影响。为今后西宁市自然资源规划管理中更好的处理耕地保护和城市发展的关系提供理论基础。

FARMLAND CHANGES AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODERATION IN XI'NING CITY

Overall changes in farmland to some extent mark the developing rules of regional social economy, human activities and urban changes, of significance to research urban developing process. This paper, in terms of Xi'ning's land use survey data 2009 to 2016, uses spatial vector data of dry land and watering land by processed by Arcgis to analyze its farmland dynamics, changes and core shift, and discusses the actual land overall changes and spatial distribution of three counties and four districts in Xi'ning in recent years, revealing an inner relation between urban development and farmland changes. SAS, SPSS and EXCEL are used to forecast the future farmland overall changes in Xi'ning city and to study its impact on future urban development moderation, offering a theoretical basis for Xi'ning to balance the relation between farmland protection and urban development amid the future natural resource planning.