| 基于最小误差估计的综合时间序列预测法及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐文杰,肖杰,刘卉,张立平.基于最小误差估计的综合时间序列预测法及其应用[J].四川电力技术,2006,29(3):9-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐文杰 肖杰 刘卉 张立平 |
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| 作者单位： | 宜宾电业局,四川宜宾,644002 |
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| 摘 要： | 电力需求预测是当前电力企业营销部门面临的重要课题之一,结合现有时间序列预测技术的特点,提出了一种基于最小误差的综合时间序列预测方法,结合某电力企业的实际销售电量进行了分析和预测,证明了提出方法的正确性和可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力需求 预测技术 时间序列 最小误差 综合预测 实际企业 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-6954（2006）03-0009-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-01-20 |
Integrated Time Series Forecasting Method Based on Minimum Error Estimation and Its Application |
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| Tang Wenjie,Xiao Jie,Liu Hui,Zhang Liping.Integrated Time Series Forecasting Method Based on Minimum Error Estimation and Its Application[J].Sichuan Electric Power Technology,2006,29(3):9-11. |
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| Authors: | Tang Wenjie Xiao Jie Liu Hui Zhang Liping |
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| Affiliation: | Tang Wenjie Xiao Jie Liu Hui Zhang Liping |
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| Abstract: | Power demand forecasting is one key subject for power marketing department.Considering the characteristics of existing time series forecasting technique,a new integrated time series(ITS) forecasting method based on minimum error is proposed.According to the actual volume of electric power sold of one power supply enterprise,the power demand is analyzed and forecasted.The result shows that the proposed method is valid and feasible. |
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| Keywords: | power demand forecasting technique time series minimum error integrated forecasting real enterprise |
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