Pathways for the North European electricity supply

This paper investigates the development of the electricity-supply systems in Northern Europe (Germany, UK, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway) until the year 2050. The focus is on the response to an assumed common stringent CO₂-reduction target and on the role of carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS). Special emphasis is put on turn-over in capital stock, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large-scale introduction of CCS. The analysis is carried out through scenario analysis with the aid of a techno-economic model, in which a case including CCS is compared to a case excluding this option. The phase out of the present capital stock (power plants) is included from the Chalmers energy infrastructure databases, which gives information on present and planned power plants down to block level for plants exceeding 10 MW net electric power. Assuming technical lifetimes for these plants yield residual capacities in each year, here referred to as the phase-out pattern. CCS technologies are assumed to become commercially available in 2020.