基于动态可靠性评价的城市地下物流网络设计

基于国内外城市地下物流系统研究实践,提出3种代表性的城市地下物流系统网络原型,对网络布局范式、运作流程和设施配置进行设计。综合拓扑与运行指标,构建城市地下物流网络可靠性评价模型,根据同源案例和现实数据开展随机实验,分析3种网络在设施随机攻击及物流需求激增情景下的动态可靠性。研究表明:线轨式网络在承受高强度随机攻击时易出现突发破坏而失效;连通式网络受攻击时的拓扑可靠性最强,但大范围需求增加易导致管道快速饱和而失效;轴辐式网络在供需水平耦合扰动时的可达性、运输效率、连通性和负载稳定性综合表现最佳,据此提出城市地下物流网络原型的若干应用场景和规划建议。

Design on Urban Underground Logistics Network Based on Dynamic Reliability Evaluation

Three representative network prototypes of urban underground logistics systems (ULS) were proposed based on worldwide ULS research and practice. The designing schemes of ULS networks regarding layout forms, operating workflows, and facility configurations were put forward. Then a reliability evaluation model of ULS network was established by jointly considering topological and operational metrics. Furthermore, stochastic experiments were carried out according to homologous cases and empirical data. The dynamic reliability of three proposed networks under facility random attacks scenarios and logistics demand surging scenarios. It has been found that the network with rail line topology tends to suddenly fail when it is subjected to high-intensity random attacks. The network with connected topology has the strongest topological reliability under attack, while it is easy to fail due to full-load of pipelines when the demand volume largely surges. The network with hub-and-spoke topology has the best comprehensive performance in terms of accessibility, transport efficiency, connectivity, and operating stability under the coupling disturbance of supply-demand levels. Several application options and planning suggestions for urban ULS network prototypes have been proposed.