农业生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性评价——以河北省农业综合开发项目区为例

选取河北省农业综合开发项目区农业生态系统作为研究对象,将其划分为2个一级区8个亚区。通过采用实地调查与专家推荐的方法,确定了河北省农业对气候变化的脆弱性评价体系;采用专家打分和层次分析法完成了现状条件下农业对气候变化的脆弱性评价。评价结果表明坝上高原和冀西北山间盆地亚区农业对气候变化非常脆弱,山麓平原亚区农业对气候变化较为适中,滨海平原亚区农业对气候变化脆弱性逐渐变缓。评价结果基本上反映出河北省农业开发项目区生态系统气候脆弱性现状的一个大致轮廓,可供进一步研究借鉴和参考。

Assessment of Climate Change on Vulnerability of Agro-ecosystems A Case Study in the Agricultural Comprehensive Development Project Area in Hebei Province

The agricultural ecosystem in the agricultural comprehensive development project area of Hebei Province is investigated in the study,and the system is divided into two first-grade districts with eight sub-districts.The methods of field survey and recommendation from the experts are employed to establish the assessment system of climate change on the vulnerability of the agricultural ecosystem,which can be used to evaluate the vulnerability of agro-ecosystem under climate change according to the expert grading method and the analytic hierarchy process.The evaluation results show that the agricultural ecosystem of the sub-districts at the plateau and the basin of northwest Hebei Mountains is highly vulnerable to climate change;the agricultural ecosystem of the sub-district at the piedmont plain area is moderately vulnerable to climate change;and the vulnerability of the agricultural ecosystem of the sub-district at the coastal plain area to climate change is minimal.The results can provide an outline of the vulnerability of the agricultural ecosystem to climate change in different districts of the agricultural comprehensive development project area in Hebei Province,which is beneficial for further research and investigations.