Daily forecasting of air pollution potential

Experimental forecasts performed at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium during the winters 1979–1980 and 1980–1981 are described and analysed. These forecasts are based on the evaluation of an air pollution potential index which uses three important meteorological parameters : wind speed, vertical stability and temperature.These meteorological forecasts combine numerical forecasts at the 850 mbar level with a semi-climatological scheme giving air temperatures associated with the air mass characteristics. The meteorological index is converted into potential air pollution levels by means of a relation deduced from a linear regression using SO₂ measurements from the previous winter. The results of the two seasons of experimental forecasts are very encouraging.