| 洪灾综合风险结构与综合评价方法(Ⅱ)——微观结构 |
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| 引用本文： | 李继清,张玉山,王丽萍,纪昌明.洪灾综合风险结构与综合评价方法(Ⅱ)——微观结构[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2006,39(2):5-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李继清 张玉山 王丽萍 纪昌明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北电力大学,北京,102206
2. 国务院南水北调工程建设委员会办公室,北京,100053 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划);中国科学院资助项目;武汉大学校科研和教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 从模型分析的角度,分析了由洪水风险、防洪工程风险、防洪投资风险、洪泛区风险、洪水生态环境风险和防洪决策风险6个方面所组成的洪灾综合风险特征,构建以洪水为中心的洪灾风险链的微观结构.应用概率论方法,给出了相应的量化概念模型,并提出了具体的研究路线.最后,对洪灾综合风险的结构进行了系统分析,为深入探讨洪灾综合风险分析与管理的具体方法、模型及防洪对策提供了总体研究框架与思路.
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| 关 键 词： | 洪水灾害 综合风险 风险结构 微观结构 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-8844（2006）02-005-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-22 |
Structure and evaluation of integrated risk for flood disaster (Ⅱ)--microstructure |
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| LI Jiqing,ZHANG Yushan,WANG Liping,JI Changming.Structure and evaluation of integrated risk for flood disaster (Ⅱ)--microstructure[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2006,39(2):5-10. |
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| Authors: | LI Jiqing ZHANG Yushan WANG Liping JI Changming |
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| Affiliation: | 1. North China Electrical Power University, Beijing 102206, China; 2. The Office for South-to-North Water Transfer Commission of the State Council, Beijing 100053, China |
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| Abstract: | From the point of view of model,the microstructure of the risk chain,which consists of flood risk,engineering risk,investment risk,floodplain risk,flood eco-environment risk and decision-making risk for flood control,is structured regarding flood as the center.The corresponding quantitative conceptual model of them are constructed by probability theory.The technical course of whole-length study is bought forward along the progress.Besides,systematic analysis of the constitution of integrated risk has been carried out in the end;the total frame and thinking way are put forward for go deep in inquiring into the integrated risk analysis and management of the flood disaster with concrete method,model and flood-control countermeasures. |
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| Keywords: | flood disaster integrated risk risk constitution microstructure |
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