| 交通冲突量的混沌预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐阳山,李江,田育耕,陈昕.交通冲突量的混沌预测[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2005,35(6):646-0648. |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐阳山 李江 田育耕 陈昕 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学,交通学院,长春,130022;辽宁工学院,汽车与交通学院,辽宁,锦州,121001;吉林大学,交通学院,长春,130022;辽宁工学院,汽车与交通学院,辽宁,锦州,121001 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目（50338030）. |
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| 摘 要： | 首先从混沌相空间重构着手简单介绍了混沌理论的基础,然后研究了混沌预测方法及其应用在交通冲突量预测中的原理和过程,最后利用混沌预测方法对具体的交叉口交通冲突量的预测实例进行了研究,并通过灰色误差检验方法对预测方法和结果进行了评价,表明交通冲突量混沌预测方法是交通冲突量预测的有效方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通运输安全工程 交通冲突 相空间重构 混沌判定 混沌预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-5497（2005）06-0646-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年6月2日 |
Chaos Forecast for Traffic Conflict Flow |
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| TANG Yang-shan,LI Jiang,TIAN Yu-geng,CHEN Xin.Chaos Forecast for Traffic Conflict Flow[J].Journal of Jilin University:Eng and Technol Ed,2005,35(6):646-0648. |
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| Authors: | TANG Yang-shan LI Jiang TIAN Yu-geng CHEN Xin |
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| Affiliation: | 1. College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China; 2. Department of Automobile and Transportation, Liaoning Institute of Technology ,Jinzhou 121001, China |
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| Abstract: | The fundamentals of the chaos theory were introduced from the chaotic phase-space reconstruction, then the chaos forecasting method and its application in the traffic conflict flow forecast were studied. Then a case study of a crossroad traffic conflict flow by means of the chaos forecasting method was performed, and the forecasting method and results were evaluated by the gray error checking. The evaluated results show that the chaos forecasting method is effective in forecasting the traffic conflict flow. |
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| Keywords: | traffic safety engineering traffic conflict phase space reconstruction chaos judgement chaos forecast |
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