快速城市化条件下基于SLEUTH-SWAT模型的济南市水文响应分析

为更好地反映快速城市化未来长期的区域水文响应,以济南市为例,利用2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年土地利用、道路演变等数据,驱动SLEUTH模型对快速城市化进行了模拟和合理预测,生成了2020年、2030年土地利用数据。以此作为输入数据,运用SWAT模型定量分析了快速城市化和气候变化对径流、蒸发等水文要素的影响。结果表明:未来济南市仍有大量耕地转化为城市用地,2030年城市面积将达到640 km~2。不考虑气候变化,总径流和地表径流将分别增加4%和12.5%,蒸发和下渗分别减少0.78%和2.51%,核心城市化子流域地表径流将增加40%以上。依据年降雨量选取了平水、极丰和极枯三种降水情景,极枯和极丰情景下2030年济南市地表径流深分别为15.02 mm和101.44 mm,极丰情景下重点城区径流深可达300 mm以上。建议未来济南市核心城区加强防洪管理,重点防范城市内涝及洪水灾害。

SLEUTH-SWAT model-based analysis on hydrological response of Jinan City under condition of rapid urbanization

In order to better reflect the long-term regional hydrological response in the future for the rapid urbanization，the rapid urbanization is simulated and reasonably predicted by means of SLEUTH ( slope，land use，exclusion，urban extent，transportation and hill-shade) model with the data of land use，road evolution，etc． of 2005，2010 and 2015 by taking Jinan City as the study case，and then the land use data for 2020 and 2030 are generated． By taking these data as the input data，the impacts from the hydrological elements，i． e． runoff，evaporation，etc． on the rapid urbanization and climate change are quantitatively analyzed with SWAT model． The result shows that a large amount of cultivated land in Jinan City is still to be transformed into urban land in the future． The urban area is to reach 640 km2 in 2030，while the total runoff and surface runoff are to be increased by 4% and 12. 5% respectively and the evaporation and the infiltration are to be decreased by 0. 78% and 2. 51% respectively without the consideration of climate change，in which the surface runoff of the core urbanized sub-watershed is to be increased by over 40%． In accordance with the annual rainfall，three scenarios of precipitation，i． e． normal，extreme abundant and extreme drought，are selected，from which the surface runoff depths of Jinan City in 2030 are to be 15. 02 mm and 101. 44 mm under both the precipitation scenarios of extreme abundance and extreme drought respectively，while the runoff depth of the core urban area can reach to over 300 mm under the scenario of extreme abundance． It is suggested that the flood control management of the core urban area of Jinan City is necessary to be strengthened with the focus on the prevention of the urban waterlogging and flood disaster in the future．