新能源发展的基本动因与主要方向

本文分析了现阶段新能源发展的基本动因不是能源危机与低碳经济,而主要是传统化石能源外部成本不断显露、交易成本日益攀升等经济性因素。围绕风能、太阳能等新能源发展,指出其技术成本、系统成本、替代成本以及成本约束制度、成本竞争态势等方面的问题与风险。最终提出提高技术、降低成本是现阶段新能源发展的主要方向。

The Basic Causes and Main Directions for Renewable Energy Development

The paper analyzes that, in current phase, the basic causes for renewable energy development are not the energy crisis and low-carbon economy, but mainly the economic factors such as obviously external costs of traditional fossil energy, the increase of the trade cost etc. Based on the development of renewable energy such as wind energy, solar energy and so on, it indicates the issues and risks such as technical costs, system costs, replacement costs, the cost restriction rules and the cost competition rules. The conclusion is that both technical improvement and costs deducing becomes the main developing orientations for renewable energy.