大电网可靠性评估的随机响应面法

为定量分析元件可靠性参数的不确定性对大电网可靠性评估的影响,采用计及元件故障率和平均修复时间的随机性引入随机响应面法,通过少量计算,建立了大电网可靠性指标的函数表达式,继而得到指标的期望和方差;为提高可靠性参数非正态假设下的计算收敛速度,提出了基于广义混沌多项式的随机响应面法;为验证所提方法的正确性和有效性,采用RBTS测试系统进行了可靠性评估分析。测试结果表明：基于上述函数关系,可量化分析可靠性参数的不确定性对大电网可靠性评估的影响,易辨识出系统可靠性的薄弱参数,可为规划和运行人员进行可靠性改善研究时提供参考。

Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power Systems by Using Stochastic Response Surface Method

In order to quantify the effect of the uncertainty of component reliability parameters in reliability assessment of bulk power systems, a method called stochastic response surface method and with the considerations of the factors of the stochastic nature of fault rate and MTTR, was proposed, which can rapidly induce polynomial expressions for risk indices as well as formulas and calculate the relevant expectation value and its variance. Moreover, to enhance the velocity of convergence, the generalized polynomial chaos expansions were developed in case that the component parameters don’t follow the normal distribution. By taking the advantages of the proposed method, the vulnerable points in a power system can be identified, which can provide guides for system planners and operators. Finally, the reliability of the RBTS test system was evaluated and analyzed and the simulation results verify the validity of evaluation method mentioned above.