| 基于PERT的多因素影响下的项目工期风险评价 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 武菲菲,王学海,程铁信.基于PERT的多因素影响下的项目工期风险评价[J].工业工程,2015,18(6):89. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 武菲菲 王学海 程铁信 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.天津工业大学 管理学院，天津 300387；2.天津市水务工程建设交易管理中心，天津 300204 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重点资助项目（13ASH003） |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了有效控制工程项目的工期风险，提出基于PERT的多因素影响下的项目工期风险评价方法。本文从分析影响项目工期的风险因素出发，对每一风险因素所引起的项目作业拖延时间根据其特征可以给出不同的假设分布，确定各风险因素对作业的影响，并通过蒙特卡罗模拟确定项目各路径工期的分布。通过仿真，可以直观、方便地分析风险因素对项目工期的独立影响和组合影响大小，为项目进度风险控制提供了多角度、多维度的视角。
|
| 关 键 词： | 工程管理 项目工期 PERT技术 蒙特卡罗模拟 |
A Project Duration Risk Analysis and Evaluation Under Multiple Influencing Factors Based on PERT |
| |
| Wu Fei-fei,Wang Xue-hai,Cheng Tie-xin.A Project Duration Risk Analysis and Evaluation Under Multiple Influencing Factors Based on PERT[J].Industrial Engineering Journal,2015,18(6):89. |
| |
| Authors: | Wu Fei-fei Wang Xue-hai Cheng Tie-xin |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. School of Management, Tianjin Ploytechnic University, Tianjin 300387, China; 2. Tianjin Water Engineering Construction and Transaction Center, Tianjin 300204,China |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to effectively control the construction project duration, an evaluation method under multiple influencing factors based on PERT is proposed. The risk factors affecting the project duration are analyzed and some different assumptions about the distribution of the delay time caused by each risk factor made to determine the impact on each activity. Then, each path duration distribution of the project is determined through Monte Carlo simulation, by which the independent and combined effectiveness of the risk factors is obtained, and the duration risk is analyzed and controlled from different perspectives. |
| |
| Keywords: | engineering management project duration PERT（program/project evaluation and review technique） Monte Carlo simulation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《工业工程》浏览原始摘要信息 |
|
点击此处可从《工业工程》下载全文 |
