基于信息再修正的负荷协调预测方法研究

负荷预测的准确性与规划的匹配性越来越重要,而在多级负荷预测中,由于预测误差的存在,不同等级的负荷预测结果会出现不统一、不协调的情况。针对该问题提出一种基于信息再修正的负荷协调预测方法,首先以预测年前一年预测结果的预测误差为先期参考数列计算各级预测结果的可信度;然后将同一预测方法下预测年协调前后的负荷预测差作为新的参考数列,替换原先参考数列,进行信息再修正,求得新的可信度,并利用该可信度建立协调预测模型,进而得到协调结果;最后根据算例分析,验证了文中所提方法的正确性。

Load coordination forecasting method based on information re-modification

The accuracy of load forecasting and the matching of planning are becoming more and more important. Due to the existence of forecasting errors, the results of different levels of load forecasting will be inconsistent and inconsistent in multilevel load forecasting. To solve this problem, a load coordination forecasting method based on information re-amendment is proposed. Firstly, the reliability of the prediction results is calculated by taking the prediction error of the prediction results one year before the prediction as the prior reference sequence, then the difference of load forecasting before and after the coordination of forecasting years under the same forecasting method is taken as a new reference sequence. Replace the original reference sequence, re-correct the information, and obtain new credibility. The coordination forecasting model is established by using this credibility, and then the coordination results are obtained. Finally, the correctness of the proposed method is verified by the analysis and calculation of an example.