基于系统动力学模型的南渡江流域水资源脆弱性评价

水资源安全影响区域社会经济的健康发展,全球气候变化与人类活动已对流域水资源安全造成巨大压力。建立水资源、水环境及社会经济系统动力学(SD)模型,以层次分析法构建水资源脆弱性评价指标体系与评价标准,设置常规、技术革新型、经济优先型以及综合发展4种模式,采用综合指数加权法对2010—2035年南渡江流域水资源脆弱性进行评价预测并探究水资源脆弱性成因及机理。结果表明:各产业生产用水、城乡用水、GDP增长率与流域水资源脆弱度呈正相关,污水处理率、三产/工业比例与其呈负相关;4种情景都经历中等、轻微和不脆弱3个阶段,整体脆弱度呈现下降趋势,且情景3、情景1、情景2、情景4下降幅度依次增加;情景3整体脆弱度最高,均值为43.81,情景4整体脆弱度最低,均值为33.48;综合发展模式最适合南渡江流域健康发展。

Assessment of Water Resources Vulnerability of Nandu River Basin Using System Dynamics Model

Water security affects the healthy and sustainable development of regional social economy. Global climate change and human activities have put great pressure on water resources security. A system dynamics (SD) model involving water resources, water environment, and socio-economic systems was built to assess and predict the water resources vulnerability of Nandu River basin in 2010-2035, and the causes and mechanism of water resources vulnerability were expounded. The assessment index system and evaluation standard were constructed by using the analytic hierarchy process. Four scenarios, namely, conventional, technological innovation, economic priority, and comprehensive development scenarios were set in the model. Results unveiled that industrial water consumption, urban/rural water consumption, and GDP growth rate were positively related to water resources vulnerability, while sewage treatment rate and the tertiary industry/industrial ratio were negatively related to water resources vulnerability. The water resources in all the four scenarios went through three stages: moderately vulnerable, slightly vulnerable, and not vulnerable, displaying a downward trend in vulnerability. Such downward amplitude in scenario 4 was the largest, followed by scenarios 2, 1 and 3 in sequence. The overall vulnerability was the largest in scenario 3, with an average of 43.81, and the smallest in scenario 4, averaging 33.48. In conclusion, scenario 4, namely, the comprehensive development mode is the most suitable for the healthy development of Nandu River Basin.