| 基于贝叶斯网络的酒店火灾概率评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 张雷,黄晓家,谢水波,吴懂礼,杨世全,赵耀.基于贝叶斯网络的酒店火灾概率评估[J].消防科学与技术,2020,39(7):916. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张雷 黄晓家 谢水波 吴懂礼 杨世全 赵耀 |
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| 作者单位： | （1. 南华大学 土木工程学院，湖南 衡阳 421001；2. 中国中元国际工程有限公司，北京 100089） |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省重点领域研发计划项目（2019B111102002） |
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| 摘 要： | 为加强酒店场所对火灾风险的预警和管理工作，对《中国消防年鉴》及广东省东莞市火灾数据进行分析总结并查阅相关文献，建立了基于贝叶斯网络的酒店火灾风险模型，采用权重占比法计算出了东莞市酒店火灾发生概率，使用软件 Genie2.1 对东莞市酒店火灾风险因素建模，并对各火灾风险进行了敏感性分析，识别对火灾风险影响显著的因素，针对显著因素提出酒店的火灾风险改进意见。
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| 关 键 词： | 消防安全 权重分析 贝叶斯网络 酒店火灾 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-03 |
Hotel fire probability evaluation based onBayesian Network |
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| ZHANG Lei,HUANG Xiao - jia,XIE Shui - bo,WU Dong - li,YANG Shi - quan,ZHAO Yao.Hotel fire probability evaluation based onBayesian Network[J].Fire Science and Technology,2020,39(7):916. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lei HUANG Xiao - jia XIE Shui - bo WU Dong - li YANG Shi - quan ZHAO Yao |
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| Affiliation: | (1. Civil Engineering College,University of South China, Hunan Hengyang 421001, China; 2. China Zhongyuan International Engineering Co.,Ltd., Beijing 100089,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to strengthen the early warning and management of fire risks at hotel sites, the China Fire Yearbook and the fire data of Dongguan City in Guangdong Province were analyzed and summarized, and relevant literatures were consulted. A hotel fire risk model based on Bayesian networks was established and weighted the ratio method was used to calculate the probability of a hotel fire in Dongguan. The software Genie 2.1 was used to model the fire risk factors. Sensitivity analysis of each fire risk was performed to identify the factors that have a significant impact on the fire risk. Suggestions for improving the hotel's fire risk were put forward for the significant factors. |
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| Keywords: | fire safety weight analysis Bayesian Network hotel fire |
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