基于概率分析的密集丛式井组造斜窗口确定方法

造斜点深度分配是决定密集丛式井组整体防碰设计效果的关键因素之一，而造斜点深度选择范围即造斜窗口是合理分配造斜点的前提。为此，从概率分析的角度，分析了南堡油田152口上直段较长井（900 m以内设计为直井段）的实钻井眼轨迹数据，得出了上直段水平位移偏差随井深的变化规律，建立了上直段水平位移偏差概率分析模型，形成了一种可以确定密集丛式井组造斜窗口的方法。通过在南堡1-3人工岛密集丛式井组设计与施工中的应用，证明该方法可以为南堡油田密集丛式井组轨道设计提供相对合理的造斜窗口。

Method for determining the kick off window of dense cluster well group based on probability analysis

The depth distribution of kick off points is one of the key factors to determine the anti-collision design effect of the dense cluster well group,while its depth range-kick off window is the premise of a rational allocation.To this end,analyzed the trajectory of 152 wells which designed with long vertical section close to 900 meters,obtained its horizontal displacement deviation,established its probability model,formed a method which can be used to determine the kick off window of dense cluster well group.T...