计及不确定性的综合能源系统容量规划方法

计及分布式可再生能源不确定性因素的综合能源系统(Integrated Energy System,IES)规划更加接近实际情况,也是实现多能协调和IES优化运行的基础。考虑光伏发电出力的间歇性和波动性,提出了一种计及不确定性的含冷、热、电、气多能流的综合能源系统容量规划模型及其求解方法。首先,为了精确地模拟光伏发电的不确定性,利用场景法描述其不确定性并运用基于Wasserstein概率距离的场景削减0-1规划模型对大量不确定性场景进行削减。在此基础上,建立以投资运行成本之和最小为目标函数的IES容量规划模型。其次,由于场景分析法难以直接得到最优规划方案,采用基于场景分析法的两阶段规划策略对此模型进行求解得到含整数变量的多能源容量规划方案。基于算例的仿真结果表明:所提出方法能够经济且可靠地满足整个规划周期内系统各节点、各类型负荷需求。

Optimal capacity planning of an integrated energy system considering uncertainty

An Integrated Energy System (IES) planning system that takes into account the uncertainties of distributed renewable energy sources is likely to be closer to the actual situation than one that does not, and is also the basis for achieving multi-ability coordination and optimal operation of an IES. Thus, considering the intermittency and fluctuation of photovoltaic power output, a capacity planning model of an integrated energy system including cold, heat, electricity and gas multi-energy flow and its analysis are proposed. First, in order to accurately simulate the uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation, the scenario method is used to describe the uncertainty, and a 0-1 scenario reduction planning model based on Wasserstein probability distance is used to reduce the large number of uncertain scenarios. Then an IES capacity planning model with the objective function of minimizing the sum of investment operation costs is established. Secondly, it is difficult to get the optimal planning scheme directly because of scenario analysis, so a two-stage programming strategy based on the scene analysis method is adopted to obtain the multi-energy capacity planning scheme with integer variables. Simulation results based on examples show that the proposed method can meet the load requirements of each node and each type of system in the whole planning period economically and reliably. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51607105).