基于复杂性理论的水资源配置框架及方法体系

鉴于以特定需求驱动的传统水资源配置模型缺乏可操作性、集成性、动态性的问题日益凸显,在分析水资源配置系统具有复杂大系统特点的基础上,采用复杂性理论,建立具有复杂配水网络图、动力学配水模型、模拟仿真演化、预测分析模块的复杂水资源配置框架,并对利用知识图概化配水网络图、多目标动态配水行为构建和综合集成预测等方法体系进行详细说明。同时,综合采用WebService技术、知识可视化技术、组件化技术进行实现。实例应用表明,基于复杂性理论的水资源配置框架体系具有可操作性和实用性,能够满足合理、有效、动态的水资源配置要求,辅助配水决策。

Framework and Method System of Water Resources Allocation Based on Complexity Theory

Since the traditional water resources allocation models driven by specific needs lack operability, integration and dynamics, which is becoming increasingly prominent, based on analyzing the characteristics of water resources allocation system, complexity theory is adopted to establish a framework of complex water resources allocation. The framework is comprised of complex water resources allocation network graph, dynamic water resources allocation, simulation evolution and forecast analysis. The method system included network diagram generalization of water resources allocation by the knowledge map, behavior construction of multi-objective and dynamic water resources allocation and integrated prediction are described in detail. And then the WebService, knowledge visualization and componentization technology are used to implement system functionality. The results show that the framework of complex water resources allocation based on complexity theory is more operational and practicable, which can meet reasonable, effective and dynamic requirements of water resources allocation and support decision making.