中国电力消费（1997-2017年）驱动因素分析

采用对数平均迪式指数（logarithmic mean divisia index, LMDI）因素分解法，分析经济因素、技术因素、结构因素、人口因素和居民活动因素对中国1997―2017年电力消费增长的驱动作用。研究结果表明，经济因素在新增电力消费中的贡献最大，技术因素和结构因素减缓了电力消费的快速增长，人口因素和居民活动因素对电力消费增长的贡献逐渐增加。建议要继续保持经济高质量增长，制定更为科学合理的电力发展目标和针对性政策措施，合理引导家庭电力消费模式转变，以电力高质量发展满足居民高品质生活需求。

An Analysis of the Driving Factors of Chinese Electricity Consumption from 1997 to 2017

The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) factor decomposition method is used to analyze the driving effects of economic factor, technical factor, structural factor, population factor and resident activity factor on the China's electricity consumption growth between 1997 and 2017. The results show that economic factor contribute most to the increase in electricity consumption; the technical factor and structural factor slow down the rapid growth of electricity consumption; and the contribution of population and resident activity factors to the growth of electricity consumption gradually increases. It is suggested that we should continue to maintain high-quality economic growth and formulate more scientific and reasonable electricity development goals and targeted policies and measures. The transformation of household electricity consumption patterns should be guided rationally to meet the residents' high-quality living needs with high-quality electricity development.