Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change |
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| Authors: | Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr Wideke Boersma Jean-Christophe Castella Keith Clarke Ton de Nijs Charles Dietzel Zengqiang Duan Eric Fotsing Noah Goldstein Kasper Kok Eric Koomen Christopher D. Lippitt William McConnell Alias Mohd Sood Bryan Pijanowski Snehal Pithadia Sean Sweeney Tran Ngoc Trung A. Tom Veldkamp Peter H. Verburg |
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| Affiliation: | (1) Department of International Developement, Community and Environment, School of Geography, Clark University, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA 01610-1477, USA;(2) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands;(3) Department of Social Sciences, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France;(4) Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA;(5) Resources and Environment College, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China;(6) Computer Science Department of the University Institute of Technology at Bandjoun, and Center for Environmental Studies and Development in Cameroon, University of Dschang, Maroua, Cameroon;(7) Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands;(8) SPINlab, Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;(9) School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA, USA;(10) Center for Systems Integration & Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA;(11) Forestry Department Peninsular Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;(12) Department Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA;(13) Center for the Study of Institutions, Populations, and Environmental Change, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA;(14) Mountain Agrarian Systems Program, Vietnam Agricultural Sciences Institute, Hanoi, Vietnam |
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| Abstract: | This paper applies methods of multiple resolution map comparison to quantify characteristics for 13 applications of 9 different popular peer-reviewed land change models. Each modeling application simulates change of land categories in raster maps from an initial time to a subsequent time. For each modeling application, the statistical methods compare: (1) a reference map of the initial time, (2) a reference map of the subsequent time, and (3) a prediction map of the subsequent time. The three possible two-map comparisons for each application characterize: (1) the dynamics of the landscape, (2) the behavior of the model, and (3) the accuracy of the prediction. The three-map comparison for each application specifies the amount of the prediction’s accuracy that is attributable to land persistence versus land change. Results show that the amount of error is larger than the amount of correctly predicted change for 12 of the 13 applications at the resolution of the raw data. The applications are summarized and compared using two statistics: the null resolution and the figure of merit. According to the figure of merit, the more accurate applications are the ones where the amount of observed net change in the reference maps is larger. This paper facilitates communication among land change modelers, because it illustrates the range of results for a variety of models using scientifically rigorous, generally applicable, and intellectually accessible statistical techniques. |
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| Keywords: | C52 C53 Q15 Q24 R14 R52 |
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