A disease network-based recommender system framework for predictive risk modelling of chronic diseases and their comorbidities

The prediction of chronic diseases and their comorbidities is an essential task in healthcare, aiming to predict patients’ future disease risk based on their previous medical records. The accumulation of administrative data has laid a solid foundation for applying deep learning approaches in healthcare. Existing studies focused on the patients’ characteristics such as gender, age and location to predict the risk of the different diseases. However, there are high dimensional, incomplete and noisy problems in the administrative data. In this research, using administrative health data, we implemented graph theory and content-based recommender system approaches to analyse and predict chronic diseases and their comorbidities. Firstly, we used bipartite graphs to represent the relationships between patients and diseases. Then, we projected this graph to a one-mode graph, namely ‘disease network’. After that, six recommender system models with patient features and network features were trained. The outputs of these models are the severity levels of diseases and the predicted diseases with rank. Finally, we evaluated the performance of these models against the same models without network features. The results demonstrated that the models with network features have lower prediction error and better performances for predicting chronic diseases and their latent comorbidities on large administrative data. Among these models, the graph convolution matrix completion model reveals the least amount of error and the best performance for prediction. Further, using a case study of a specific patient, we demonstrated the application of these models in predictive disease risk analysis. Thus, this study showed the potential application of the recommender system approaches to the health sector utilising administrative claim data, which could significantly contribute to healthcare services and stakeholders.