蒸汽发生器炉管剩余寿命可靠性分析

通过对炉管材料高温性能分析，结合蒸汽发生器工况条件，综合考虑影响其寿命的腐蚀、温度、损伤等不确定因素，利用可靠性理论和方法，建立炉管剩余寿命的预测模型，对炉管剩余寿命进行可靠性分析。计算分析表明，腐蚀速率是影响蒸汽发生器炉管寿命的重要因素，提高蒸汽发生器炉管运行寿命首要工作是减少炉管的腐蚀。以油田多台在役蒸汽发生器为例进行计算，结果表明，该预测模型是正确的，符合实际的。计算软件的应用为蒸汽发生器的维修决策提供了科学依据，并大大地提高了油田生产效率。

Reliability Analysis of Residual Lifetime of Stove-pipe of Steam Generator

The steam generator is the key equipment of dense oil heat exploitation.The stovepipe often appears failures such as holing and cracking during the production.The high temperature performance of the pipe material is analyzed in the paper with the condition of the steam generator and consideration of all the uncertain factors that affect its life,such as corrosion,temperature and damage,etc.The model that can predict the residual life of the stovepipe is built up by using the theory and method of reliability, and the reliability of residual lifetime of the stovepipe is analyzed.The calculation analysis indicated corrosion rate is the important effects that affect life of the stovepipe.In order to improve the working life of the steam generator's stovepipe,the principal work to do is to reduce corrosion of stove pipe.Relied on the calculation on many steam generators in service,the results shows that the prediction is accord to fact.The calculation software offers much scientific evidences for the steam generator's maintenance,and also greatly improves the oil field's productivity.