基于互转换Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程的风速仿真模型及应用

准确的风速仿真是研究含风能发电系统的重要且基础步骤。为此,提出基于互转换Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程的风速仿真模型,该模型可产生任意时间步长的仿真风速样本,将其与时序Monte Carlo模拟法结合,提出仿真时间步长可变的含风能发电系统充裕度评估方法。然后,采用某观测站的实测风速样本验证所提模型,结果表明,模型产生的不同时间步长仿真风速样本具有与实测风速样本类似的概率分布特征和自相关特征。应用充裕度评估方法评估含风能IEEE-RTS发电系统充裕度,结果表明,期望失电频率对仿真时间步长的敏感度高于期望失电持续时间和期望失电量对仿真时间步长的敏感度,较大的仿真时间步长将导致对期望失电频率的过低估计,充沛的风能资源可增大风电场并网的充裕度效益。

Wind Speed Simulation Model and Application Based on Mutual Conversion Based Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process

Accurate wind speed simulation is a fundamental and important step in the study of wind-integrated generation systems.Hence,this paper proposes a wind speed simulation model based on mutual conversion based Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process,which is capable of producing simulated wind speed samples with any given time step.Consolidating such model into the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method,an adequacy assessment method for wind-integrated generation systems with variable simulation time steps is developed.Then,the measured wind speed samples from an observatory are used to verify the proposed model.The results indicate that the simulated wind speed samples with variable simulation time steps in the proposed model share similar probability distribution characteristics and autocorrelation characteristics with those of measured wind speed samples.The adequacy assessment method is applied to assess the adequacy of the wind-integrated IEEE-RTS generation system.The results indicate that the loss of load frequency presents higher sensitivity to the simulation time step than those of loss of load expectation and loss of energy expectation.A wide simulation time step will lead to the considerable underestimation for the loss of load frequency.Richer wind resources can further magnify the adequacy benefit of the wind farm integration.