| 汛限水位变幅控制风险研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙丹丹,马长明,何晓燕,胡志娟,李迎军.汛限水位变幅控制风险研究[J].北京水务,2011(1):10-13,17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙丹丹 马长明 何晓燕 胡志娟 李迎军 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京市延庆县水务局;北京工业大学;中国水利水电科学研究院; |
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| 摘 要： | 以洪水风险调度理论为研究基础,针对汛限水位变幅前后导致水库防洪系统风险变化,构建一套较完善的汛限水位变幅控制风险分析体系,体系包括水库系统风险分析方法、风险计算模型及实施原则。笔者通过实例运用,分析具体水库汛限水位变幅前后的防洪目标风险率增量,为水库风险分析提供了可靠的参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 汛限水位 风险分析 随机模拟 |
Risk analysis on reservoir flood operation considering dynamic control of flood control level |
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| SUN Dan-dan,MA Chang-ming,HE Xiao-yan,HU Zhi-juan,LI Ying-jun.Risk analysis on reservoir flood operation considering dynamic control of flood control level[J].Beijing Water,2011(1):10-13,17. |
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| Authors: | SUN Dan-dan MA Chang-ming HE Xiao-yan HU Zhi-juan LI Ying-jun |
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| Affiliation: | SUN Dan-dan1,2 MA Chang-ming2 HE Xiao-yan3 HU Zhi-juan1 LI Ying-jun1(1 Yanqing Water Bureau,Beijing,102100,China,2 Beijing University of Technology,100124,3 Water Resources and Hydropower Research,100038,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on flood risk scheduling theory and the study for the flood control water level after the dynamic changes leading to the risk flood,a reservoir flood control system is constructed.The system includes reservoir system risk source identification,risk assessment,flood risk model of dynamic level control and the implementation of the principle.This paper uses the specific reservoir example to analyze its risk objectives.The results provide a reliable reference for the reservoir to analyze the risk and ben... |
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| Keywords: | flood control level risk analysis stochastic simulation |
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