基于逻辑事故链风险评估的复杂网络关键线路识别

复杂电力系统关键线路识别对连锁故障预防至关重要。在分析目前复杂网络关键线路识别方法不足的基础上，提出基于事故链风险评估的复杂网络关键线路识别方法。首先，对主潮流路径进行逻辑变换，建立电力系统大停电的事故链模型，可快速获得较为全面的事故链集；然后，引入马尔可夫链和自组织临界理论，求取事故链的发生概率和事故链风险指标；最后，基于线路所处事故链的位置及风险值，定义线路关键程度指标，以该指标进行关键线路识别，准确度较高。以 New England-10机39节点系统为例进行仿真计算，验证本文所提关键线路识别方法的正确性和有效性。

Critical Line Identification in Complex Networks Based on Risk Assessment of Accident Chain

The identification of critical line in complex power systems is very important for the prevention of cascading failures. Based on the analysis of the shortcomings of current critical line identification methods， this paper proposes a critical line identification method of complex network based on accident chain risk assessment. Firstly，a accident chain model of the large-scale blackout of power grid is established based on the logical transformation of main power flow path， which can quickly obtain a more comprehensive set of accident chains. Then， the Markov chain and self-organized criticality theory is introduced to calculate the probability of the accident chain， and thus the risk index of the accident chain is obtained. Finally， according to the location and risk value of the accident chain of the line， the key degree index of the line is defined， which is used to identify the critical line with high accuracy. The simulation on New England 10-generator 39-bus system is done，the results verify the correctness and validity of the critical line identification method.