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| 组合预测方法在需水预测中的应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 吕孙云,许银山,熊莹,梅亚东.组合预测方法在需水预测中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2011,44(5). |
| 作者姓名： | 吕孙云 许银山 熊莹 梅亚东 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072／长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 2. 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉,430072 3. 长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉,430010 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:50839005) |
| 摘 要： | 社会经济和气候因素对水资源需求的影响一直是国内外重点关注的研究领域,以东莞市为研究对象,将需水量影响因子划分为气候因子、经济因子和社会因子,选取不同的影响因子建立需水预测模型,分析各类因子与需水量之间的响应关系.在此基础上选取最合适的影响因子,应用多种方法建立预测模型,采用最小方差组合预测技术对不同预测模型的结果进行集成.研究结果揭示了东莞市需水量变化的情景和成因,预测了东莞市需水量变化趋势,并为东莞市水资源需求预测管理提供理论基础. |
| 关 键 词： | 城市需水量 最小二乘组合预测 人工神经网络 支持向量机 |
Combined forecasting method for forecasting water demand |
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| LU Sunyun,XU Yinshan,XIONG Ying,MEI Yadong.Combined forecasting method for forecasting water demand[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2011,44(5). | |
| Authors: | LU Sunyun XU Yinshan XIONG Ying MEI Yadong |
| Affiliation: | LU Sunyun1,2,XU Yinshan1,XIONG Ying,MEI Yadong1(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan430072,China,2.Hydrology Bureau,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China) |
| Abstract: | The influence of climatic and socioeconomic factors on water consumption has always been kept an important issue by global research institute.Taking Dongguan city as study object,the influence factors of water requirement are divided into climate factors,social factors and economical factors,and analyzing response relationship between various influence factors and water demand.A water demand forecasting model is established by selecting the most suitable influence factors and applying different water demand... |
| Keywords: | urban water demand least squares combination forecasting artificial neural network support vector machines |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |