黄河流域径流演变归因研究

本文首先分析了黄河流域近43年天然径流量的变化规律,得出了降水、蒸发、土地利用和水利工程调蓄四个主要影响因子的变化规律,利用M-K、聚类分析等多种方法判别了黄河流域及6个集水区天然径流受人类活动影响较小的基准期。根据基于傅抱璞公式的流域尺度水均衡模型区分了降水、蒸发、土地利用和水利工程调蓄四个主要影响因子对于流域天然径流量变化的贡献。结果表明:流域内的天然径流量出现明显的衰减,其中4个主要影响因子中降水改变对于天然径流量的变化贡献最大,土地利用和水利工程调蓄因子的变化对各个集水单元的贡献率因为地区的差异也有很大差异。

Study on attribution of runoff evolution of Yellow River

The changing law of the natural runoff of the Yellow River Basin during the past 43 years is analyzed herein at first； from which the four main factors of impacts on the changing law， i.e. precipitation， evaporation， land use and regulation of water conservancy project， are obtained， and then the base periods with less impacts from the human activities on the natural runoffs of the Yellow River Basin and 6 catchments therein are distinguished with several methods such as M-K， clustering analysis， etc. Moreover， the contributions from the four main factors of the impacts on the changes of the natural runoff from precipitation， evaporation， land use and regulation of water conservancy project are differentiated in accordance with the watershed scale from Pu’s equation based water balance model. The result shows that obvious attenuation of the natural runoff appears within the river basin； in which among the four main impact factors， the rate of the contribution from the impact of the change of precipi tation on the change of the natural runoff is the largest， while the rates of the contributions from the changes of the factors of land use and regulation of water conservancy project on all the catchment units are largely different along with the regional differences.