2013年国际天然气市场供需形势及价格走势分析与展望

2013年，世界天然气市场运行总体平稳，产量和消费量均稳定增长，供需基本平衡。定量、定性分析北美、欧洲、亚太地区三大天然气市场的供需形势和价格趋势后认为：①供需方面，北美天然气消费量小幅增长，供应相对宽松；欧洲天然气消费在2010年之后首次企稳，供需基本平衡；亚太地区天然气消费量增速减缓，新兴经济体仍是主要增长动力；全球LNG液化能力和接收能力同时增加，贸易量小幅反弹。②价格方面，北美和欧洲的天然气2013年平均价格均有较大幅度增长，亚洲地区年均价格小幅下降，三地市场价格差异明显缩小；但亚洲LNG进口价格却长期高于其他地区，承担着不合理的亚洲“溢价”。据此做出展望：预计2014年世界天然气供需将保持平稳增长，但地区市场差异仍将存在；预计北美天然气消费量将与2013年持平，供应由宽松趋于平衡，价格大幅上涨；受经济疲软、气温平稳等因素的综合影响，欧洲气价将同比下降；在国际油价与2013年水平基本持平或略有下降的情况下，预计2014年亚洲LNG进口价格将稳中有降；上述三大天然气市场价格差异有望进一步缩小。

Supply demand situation and price tendency in the global natural gas market: An overview of 2013 and outlook for 2014

In 2013, the global gas market ran smoothly and both production and consumption increased steadily, so balance was well maintained between supply and demand. In this paper, we adopted quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze the supply demand situation and price tendency of the world's top three markets in 2013, i.e., North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. First, in supply and demand, gas consumption in North America grew slightly and gas supply was relatively loose; gas consumption in Europe became stabilized after 2010 and supply demand balance was maintained; gas consumption in the Asia Pacific market grew slowly but the emerging economies are the strong growth momentum; and natural liquefying power and LNG receiving capacity simultaneously increased, but the trade volume rebounded modestly in the whole world. Second, in terms of price, the average gas price in 2013 in North America and Europe grew dramatically while that in Asia decreased slightly so the price differences between the tope three markets obviously narrowed; but on the other hand, the imported LNG prices in Asia were higher than those in the other markets undertaking the unfair premium. On this basis, we predicted the supply demand situation and price tendency in 2014 global gas market. The natural gas supply demand will be maintained steadily but the differences will still exist at different places; gas consumption in North America will be kept at the same level with that in 2013 and the loose supply will tend to be balanced with the demand so the gas price will increase significantly; gas price in Europe will decrease on year on year basis due to the weakening economy, stable temperature, etc.; at the condition that the global oil price will be kept at the same level or decrease slightly compared to that in 2013, the imported LNG price in Asia will be maintained stable with a slight decline; and the differences of gas price among the world's top three markets will be further narrowed.